944
FXUS62 KMFL 161654
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1154 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WARM
TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS THE STORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER LAND AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
LOW END RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND SLOWLY
MEANDERS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT IN
GENERAL, SO THEY WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE BUT
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ISOLATION AND COULD
BE ADDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE MORE MODERATED WITH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA SHIFT FROM THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY'S PRESENCE, ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THANKS TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS (POPS IN THE 15-25% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONG CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL APPROACH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THIS CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT, AND REGARDING THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION, WHICH COULD
GREATLY IMPACT THIS FORECAST AND RESULT IN HIGHER OR LOWER
CHANGES FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW, KEEPING POPS
IN THE LOW-END RANGE FOR THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RISE TO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET INTO EARLY WEEK, BUT COULD GET UP TO 6
FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS WILL BE
3 FEET OR LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT COULD STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH THE ON SHORE WIND COMPONENT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALM BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 77 69 78 / 20 20 10 20
WEST KENDALL 65 80 65 81 / 10 20 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 78 67 81 / 20 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 67 80 68 81 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 75 68 77 / 20 20 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 75 67 78 / 30 20 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 80 68 82 / 20 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 66 75 66 78 / 30 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 66 76 67 78 / 30 20 10 20
NAPLES 64 79 63 81 / 20 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RAG
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