608
FXUS62 KMFL 162011
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WARM
TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS THE STORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER LAND AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
LOW END RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND SLOWLY
MEANDERS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT IN
GENERAL, SO THEY WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE BUT
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ISOLATION AND COULD
BE ADDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE MORE MODERATED WITH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM, MODELS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN DOMINATING THE SE CONUS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOFLO AND ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. ON TUESDAY, THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC SIDE, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE FAMILIES
BRING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN STRONG AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
GREATLY DEPEND OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, COOLER AIR MAY DESCEND
UPON THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET INTO EARLY WEEK, BUT COULD GET UP TO 6
FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS WILL BE
3 FEET OR LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT COULD STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH THE ON SHORE WIND COMPONENT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALM BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 77 69 78 / 20 20 10 20
WEST KENDALL 65 80 65 81 / 10 20 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 78 67 81 / 20 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 67 80 68 81 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 75 68 77 / 20 20 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 75 67 78 / 30 20 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 80 68 82 / 20 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 66 75 66 78 / 30 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 66 76 67 78 / 30 20 10 20
NAPLES 64 79 63 81 / 20 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG
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