681
FXUS62 KMFL 170707
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW
(BELOW 30%), MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LOW 80S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A STRONG CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
APPROACH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW, INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RISE TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW WINDS BECOMING N/NW AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING NE BY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15-18 KTS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT COULD GET UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
THE GULF SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 68 79 70 / 20 10 20 20
WEST KENDALL 79 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 79 66 81 68 / 10 10 20 20
HOMESTEAD 79 68 81 69 / 20 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 68 77 70 / 20 10 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 67 78 69 / 20 10 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 79 68 82 70 / 10 10 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 74 66 78 68 / 10 10 20 20
BOCA RATON 76 66 79 69 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 79 63 80 66 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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