522
FXUS62 KMFL 171525
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MESOANALYSIS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AT THIS HOUR. RECENT ACARS
DATA FROM AREA AIRPORTS INDICATE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SOME MEASLY
SPRINKLES AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKLUSTER. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES PIVOTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER TO A TRUE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE, IT WILL
BE A COMFORTABLE REST OF THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW
(BELOW 30%), MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LOW 80S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A STRONG CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
APPROACH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW, INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RISE TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING SOUTH FL THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF A N/NW DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO VFR THRESHOLDS LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15-18 KTS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT COULD GET UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
THE GULF SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 69 79 70 / 10 10 30 20
WEST KENDALL 80 65 82 66 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 79 67 81 68 / 10 10 30 20
HOMESTEAD 80 68 81 69 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 68 77 70 / 10 10 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 68 78 69 / 10 10 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 80 68 82 70 / 10 10 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 74 66 77 68 / 0 10 20 20
BOCA RATON 76 68 79 69 / 10 10 30 20
NAPLES 79 63 80 66 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page