278
FXUS62 KMFL 171701
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MESOANALYSIS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
ACARS DATA FROM AREA AIRPORTS INDICATE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SOME MEASLY
SPRINKLES AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKLUSTER. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
PIVOTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WINDS HAVE VEERED TO
A NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND A REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE, IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE REST
OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCING AND A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE
POTENTIAL (20-30%) OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A STRONG CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
APPROACH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW, INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RISE TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH ONSHORE COMPONENTS
ALONG BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CIGS ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. L/V WINDS AFTER SUNSET WITH
EASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15-18 KTS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT COULD GET
UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE GULF SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 80 70 82 / 10 30 20 10
WEST KENDALL 66 82 66 85 / 10 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 66 81 68 85 / 10 30 20 10
HOMESTEAD 68 81 69 83 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 77 70 81 / 10 30 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 77 69 82 / 10 30 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 68 82 70 86 / 10 30 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 66 77 68 82 / 10 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 66 78 69 83 / 10 30 20 20
NAPLES 63 80 66 81 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
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