751
FXUS62 KMFL 180507
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1207 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MESOANALYSIS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
ACARS DATA FROM AREA AIRPORTS INDICATE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SOME MEASLY
SPRINKLES AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKLUSTER. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
PIVOTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WINDS HAVE VEERED TO
A NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND A REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE, IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE REST
OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCING AND A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE
POTENTIAL (20-30%) OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MODELS DEPICT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CONUS BY MID WEEK,
WITH A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THAT
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOFLO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MIAMI-DADE, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ATTM AS CONSENSUS SHOW THE BEST POOL OF
MOISTURE REACHING AND LINGERING AROUND THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH
COUNTY. ALSO, DYNAMIC PARAMETERS REMAIN RATHER UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, THUS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LOW.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLING PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA ON THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING E/SE 5-10 KTS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15-18 KTS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT COULD GET
UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE GULF SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 70 83 68 / 20 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 84 65 / 20 20 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 68 85 67 / 20 20 0 10
HOMESTEAD 81 69 84 67 / 20 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 70 82 67 / 20 20 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 69 83 67 / 20 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 70 87 68 / 20 20 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 77 68 84 64 / 20 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 79 68 84 65 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 79 66 81 66 / 0 0 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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