083
FXUS62 KMFL 180644
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS TODAY
BEFORE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEK. FURTHER ANALYSIS
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVING SHIFTED TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY WHERE POPS ARE AROUND 20%. HOWEVER, ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ANY SHOWERS AS ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR REMAINS
PRESENT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE THE 800MB HEIGHT LEVEL. THUS, ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THEIR SHALLOW NATURE. ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD TAPER OFF FOR THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TAKING OVER FOR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL START TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
ITS APPROACH TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE REGION
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL AREAS BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
VERSUS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING, SO NOT EXPECTING
MANY IF ANY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE LOW 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MIAMI-DADE, BUT CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW AT THE MOMENT AS CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST POOL OF MOISTURE
REACHING AND LINGERING AROUND THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY
BEFORE FADING OUT. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC PARAMETERS REMAIN RATHER
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THEN
RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT SOME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
TRACKING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH COMPARED TO OTHERS.
THEREFORE, WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES,
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PINPOINT DETAILS AND THUS CURRENTLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING E/SE 5-10 KTS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND
SEAS AT 2-4 FEET. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BACK TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT 15-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS, BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2-4
FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACHES
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 70 83 68 / 20 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 84 65 / 20 20 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 68 85 66 / 20 20 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 69 84 67 / 20 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 70 82 67 / 20 20 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 69 83 66 / 20 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 70 87 68 / 20 20 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 77 68 84 65 / 20 20 10 10
BOCA RATON 79 68 84 66 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 79 66 81 66 / 0 0 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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