521
FXUS62 KMFL 181707
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1207 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A DIFFUSE AND
FRONTOLYTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN ENVELOPE OF DEEPER PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-
30% BALLPARK ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE ABUNDANT IN NATURE,
RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED, PERHAPS
CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC GULFSTREAM WATERS. AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (MID 80S) EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA. WITH DECOUPLING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE, PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND LOCALES BEFORE AND DURING DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL FEEL UNSEASONABLY WARM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THAT LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL START TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AMPLE WAA (WARM AIR ADVECTION) ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD HIGHS.
NBM QMD DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME INLAND SUBURBS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
UPPER 80S. A PURE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THIS REGIME (WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT) FAVORS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ACT TO CUT
SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND
ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE
PENINSULA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MIAMI-DADE, BUT CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW AT THE MOMENT AS CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST POOL OF MOISTURE
REACHING AND LINGERING AROUND THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY
BEFORE FADING OUT. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC PARAMETERS REMAIN RATHER
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THEN
RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT SOME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
TRACKING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH COMPARED TO OTHERS.
THEREFORE, WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES,
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PINPOINT DETAILS AND THUS CURRENTLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF A E/SE 7-12 KTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND A
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE CONTINUING AT APF. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY
IMPACT INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND SEAS
AT 2-4 FEET. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY BACK TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT 15-20 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS, BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS
WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 85 68 79 / 20 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 67 87 65 80 / 20 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 68 87 66 80 / 20 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 69 84 67 80 / 20 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 67 77 / 20 0 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 85 66 77 / 20 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 70 89 68 80 / 20 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 68 85 65 75 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 69 86 66 76 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 65 83 66 75 / 0 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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