840
FXUS62 KMFL 190515
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LEVELS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN EXTREMELY
LIMITED DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. AS THE SKY CLEARS OUT AND THE WIND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT,
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A DIFFUSE AND
FRONTOLYTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN ENVELOPE OF DEEPER PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-
30% BALLPARK ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE ABUNDANT IN NATURE,
RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED, PERHAPS
CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC GULFSTREAM WATERS. AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (MID 80S) EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA. WITH DECOUPLING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE, PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND LOCALES BEFORE AND DURING DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL FEEL UNSEASONABLY WARM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THAT LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL START TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AMPLE WAA (WARM AIR ADVECTION) ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD HIGHS.
NBM QMD DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME INLAND SUBURBS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
UPPER 80S. A PURE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THIS REGIME (WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT) FAVORS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ACT TO CUT
SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND
ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE
PENINSULA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
WITH WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, IN ADDITION TO MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA,
BY LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL ZONAL RIDGING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR, DUE TO
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
NEAR, OR JUST BELOW, NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL KEEP IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR, NEAR THE LAKE. THERE IS STILL MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR, BUT BELOW
NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE RETURN TO
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH A TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS, TIMING AND DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE RETURN
OF WET CONDITIONS (20-30% CHANCE) WITH PWATS 1.5-1.7", AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
TIME APPROACHES AND CERTAINTY GROWS, WE WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT. AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT
KAPF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND SEAS
AT 2-4 FEET. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY BACK TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT 15-20 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS, BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS
WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 69 80 58 / 0 0 10 10
WEST KENDALL 86 66 81 56 / 0 0 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 85 67 80 57 / 0 0 10 10
HOMESTEAD 84 68 81 58 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 68 78 57 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 67 78 57 / 10 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 87 69 82 58 / 0 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 85 65 76 55 / 10 10 10 0
BOCA RATON 84 67 77 56 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 81 66 75 51 / 10 20 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...REDMAN
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