505
FXUS62 KMFL 191155
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
WHAT'S LEFT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PROVIDED ALL THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE IT
COMPLETELY DIFFUSES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FL BUT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
METRO AS WELL. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED.
ATTENTION TODAY TURNS TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH. IT
WILL FEEL QUITE HUMID TOO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEWPOINTS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME
UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FL.
AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTH-CENTRAL FL, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. A BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
CONTINUED WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR
SOUTH FL THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY,
TO AROUND 80 OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTH FL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM FORMING IN THE WESTERN
GULF MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, HOWEVER THERE ARE PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL. WON'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM THIS FAR OUT, WHICH
SHOWS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS INLAND AREAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ENHANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE
DAY. SHRA CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE EXPECTED TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR THE GULF COAST BEACHES INCREASES ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF
COAST BEACHES IMPROVES ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER AN ELEVATED RISK WILL
REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 69 80 59 / 0 0 20 10
WEST KENDALL 87 66 81 58 / 0 0 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 87 67 80 59 / 0 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 84 68 81 59 / 0 0 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 69 79 59 / 0 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 68 78 59 / 10 10 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 88 69 82 59 / 0 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 85 66 76 57 / 10 10 20 0
BOCA RATON 86 67 77 58 / 10 10 20 0
NAPLES 82 66 74 51 / 20 20 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-069>071.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...HADI
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