448
FXUS62 KMFL 200518
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1218 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION, AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS/ROAB DATA INDICATE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, FACILITATING
EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A EXPANSIVE FIELD OF SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER OUR LAND AREAS,
VERTICALLY CAPPED BY AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR IN THE 925MB LAYER
AND ABOVE COLUMN. THESE CLOUDS WILL DO LITTLE TO STOP DIURNAL
HEATING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TOASTY AFTERNOON (RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY) ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE, THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REALIZED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREA. THE MODERATING INFLUENCES OF THE
OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG BOTH COASTS IN THE LOW 80S WITH
SUBURBS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE (MID 80S) BETWEEN THE COMFORTABLE
COAST AND HEATED UP INTERIOR. PERHAPS THE ONE SAVING GRACE FOR ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY WILL BE THAT CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S SHOULD DECREASE AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER AS OPPOSED TO OUR TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME HUMIDITY.
CURRENT GOES EAST IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION
(ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH) MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF, WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE ROBUST IN
NATURE AT THE MOMENT, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ADVECTING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CONVECTION. THIS LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND PROPAGATION AWAY FROM A FAVORABLE JET-STREAK
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA. SOME MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS, OTHER MODELS
DEPICT LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS.
AS THE AXIS OF THE FROPA PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY BEFORE ENHANCING OUT OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUD
DECKS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND THE START OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BY LAKE O, TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTH FL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. UNSETTLED
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA, HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. THE GFS
SOLUTION BRINGS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PLUME WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, STILL NOT GOING TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM THIS FAR OUT, WHICH SHOWS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ARISE IN THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PASSING OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CLOUD DECK AND
MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. NNW WINDS AROUND 10-12
KTS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FRESH TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AND ENHANCE BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR THE GULF COAST BEACHES INCREASES ON THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF COAST
BEACHES IMPROVES ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER AN ELEVATED RISK WILL REMAIN FOR
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 58 73 64 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 58 75 60 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 58 75 61 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 59 75 63 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 58 72 64 / 20 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 57 72 63 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 58 76 63 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 76 56 71 61 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 78 57 72 62 / 20 0 0 0
NAPLES 76 51 74 58 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
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