926
FXUS62 KMFL 201115
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH FL BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY, SO EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S AROUND THE LAKE, TO AROUND 80 OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PENINSULA.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS IN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW FL, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE LAKE, TO MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A DISTURBANCE FORMING IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT SOUTH FL SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BECAUSE OF THIS, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LARGE
SPREAD WITH ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL, TO
SEVERAL INCHES ON THE HIGHER END OF SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NBM SOLUTION WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK BRINGING MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 18Z WITH
VFR BECOMING PREVALENT. NNW WINDS IN THE 10-12 KTS RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FL WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE BUILDING IN LATER TODAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY IN THE GULF AND
LATE FRIDAY IN THE ATLANTIC. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 58 73 64 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 58 75 61 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 58 75 62 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 59 75 63 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 58 72 63 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 57 72 63 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 58 76 63 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 76 56 71 61 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 78 57 72 62 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 76 51 74 58 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ656-657.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
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