395
FXUS62 KMFL 211114
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
614 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT
IN THE 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
LATE THIS WEEKEND, A DISTURBANCE WILL FORM IN THE GULF AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
LOW COULD START TO IMPACT SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL, TO SEVERAL
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY ON THE HIGHER END OF SOLUTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NBM SOLUTION WHICH HAS
CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WHEN THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF COULD BE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT (500MB
TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 DEG C) ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
BUT PARAMETERS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HAIL.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
BRING BACK DRY WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE KEEPING THE HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NNW WINDS AROUND
10 KTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KTS RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 15Z. WINDS MODERATE AFTER 03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS, WHICH WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT, SEAS IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN 5-7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT LIKELY WILL END. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON THE GULF SIDE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH SEAS AT
4-6 FEET AND FALLING, THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO END LATE
THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
BEACHES TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LINGERING SWELL COULD KEEP THE HIGH RISK
GOING FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THE RIP RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 64 74 65 / 0 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 75 60 77 61 / 0 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 75 62 76 63 / 0 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 75 64 75 64 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 63 72 64 / 0 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 63 73 64 / 0 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 77 63 77 64 / 0 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 61 72 62 / 10 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 72 63 74 64 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...17
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