250
FXUS62 KMFL 211735
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOW A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING
THE SE CONUS AND THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
WV DATA, 12Z MFL SOUNDING, AND LATEST SFC ANALYSES DEPICT A
SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE, AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAPE AVAILABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO
REMAIN OVER SOFLO WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHALLOW CLOUD
DECKS LINGER FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOFLO. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY BUT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SIDE
A LITTLE COOLER, WHILE THE WEST COAST HITS THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR AREAS, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
LATE THIS WEEKEND, A DISTURBANCE WILL FORM IN THE GULF AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
LOW COULD START TO IMPACT SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL, TO SEVERAL
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY ON THE HIGHER END OF SOLUTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NBM SOLUTION WHICH HAS
CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WHEN THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF COULD BE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT (500MB
TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 DEG C) ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
BUT PARAMETERS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HAIL.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
BRING BACK DRY WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE KEEPING THE HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. N/NNE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KTS RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT AFTER 22/03Z, THEN BECOMING GUSTY
AFTER 22/15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15-20
KTS. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FEET RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON THE GULF SIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED AS ROBUST
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
THE HIGH RISK IN PLACE A LITTLE LONGER. THE RIP RISK WILL
DECREASE BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 64 74 65 / 0 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 75 60 77 61 / 0 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 75 62 76 63 / 0 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 75 64 75 64 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 63 72 64 / 0 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 63 73 64 / 0 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 77 63 77 64 / 0 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 61 72 62 / 10 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 72 63 74 64 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...17
LONG TERM...BNB
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