526
FXUS62 KMFL 221201
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
TODAY, KEEPING DRY AND CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH IS STILL PRETTY DEEP, AND THUS
WILL KEEP A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH STATES AND THE GULF WATERS. IN RETURN, THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE.
GUIDANCE DOES HIGHLIGHT A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY, BUT SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO BE IN
THE RIGHT-EXIT REGION OF THIS JET, THUS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE
RATHER THAN LIFT THROUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE, EVEN
IF SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SUPPRESSED UNDER THIS PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S, THOUGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 DEGREES FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S,
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL TRACK OVER OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING
DISAGREEMENTS AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE AS THE GFS GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. AS
FAR AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, THIS WILL ALL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS A LOW END
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN HOW COLD
THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK TO BE (ABOUT -12 TO -15 DEG C). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AS THEY MAY
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AS THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
DRIER AIR WILL START TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WELL AS THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER 15Z WITH PERIODS OF
PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z, THEN DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TODAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND,
BUT A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ATLANTIC SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS. GULF SEAS WILL BE
AT 2-4 FEET. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SETTLING HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, AND
A LINGERING SWELL CONTINUES EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY. THE
RIP RISK WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 63 78 67 / 20 10 10 20
WEST KENDALL 76 59 80 63 / 20 10 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 76 61 79 65 / 20 10 10 20
HOMESTEAD 76 61 79 66 / 20 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 63 76 66 / 10 10 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 62 76 66 / 20 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 77 62 81 66 / 10 10 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 73 60 76 63 / 20 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 74 61 76 65 / 20 10 10 20
NAPLES 78 59 77 61 / 10 10 0 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...17
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