692
FXUS62 KMFL 260709
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
309 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SEEN ON SFC ANALYSES STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS AT THE LOW-MID
LEVELS TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW 1
INCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MIGRATES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRIER AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SE CONUS MOVES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP IN REDUCING
CLOUD COVER, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID MORNING, AND
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. ONLY THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE ARE CARRYING ANY COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE 10-
20 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE.
WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY, BUT REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOFLO. BY THURSDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE AND BRING A MORE ROBUST NE FLOW ACROSS SOFLO,
WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND METRO AREAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE FROPA, THE AIR MASS WON'T MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST PER LATEST CAMM/EURO/GFS ENSEMBLES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO TODAY, AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AROUND THE
GULF COAST. THURSDAY MAY SEE A LIGHT COOLING EFFECT FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT PROBABLY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
TO WRAP UP THE WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL KEEP DRIER AIR AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 12-18KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
LONG TERM MODEL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE, WITH THE EXIT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE APPROACH OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY. ON SATURDAY,
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF, HEADING FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, THE VEERING, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ESCORT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH A RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING, THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS FAVORABLE PWAT VALUES REACHING 1.5 TO 1.7", WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50% RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT, THE OVERALL TIMELINE SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE'S
ARRIVAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO THE WEEK. MODEL VARYING
CONTINUES, BUT OVERALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY WITH LINGERING EAST COAST SHOWERS AND SEA
BREEZE ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, SUNDAY MAY BE MOST ACTIVE WITH
ENSEMBLES FORECASTING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOLLOWING THE
EXIT OF MONDAY'S LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE SEASONAL
LOW 80S, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO BE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN SOUTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S, WITH THE EAST COAST
IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE AROUND MIA AND TMB AFTER 16Z, BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT ENE
10-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT OVERALL BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ADISORY LEVEL SPEEDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 69 79 70 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 65 82 66 / 10 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 67 82 68 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 68 80 68 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 69 78 69 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 69 78 69 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 69 83 69 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 67 78 67 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 68 79 68 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 85 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/MARINE...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...17
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