005
FXUS62 KMFL 270506
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SEEN ON SFC ANALYSES STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS AT THE LOW-MID
LEVELS TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW 1
INCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MIGRATES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRIER AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SE CONUS MOVES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP IN REDUCING
CLOUD COVER, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID MORNING, AND
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. ONLY THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE ARE CARRYING ANY COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE 10-
20 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE.
WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY, BUT REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOFLO. BY THURSDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE AND BRING A MORE ROBUST NE FLOW ACROSS SOFLO,
WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND METRO AREAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE FROPA, THE AIR MASS WON'T MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST PER LATEST CAMM/EURO/GFS ENSEMBLES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO TODAY, AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AROUND THE
GULF COAST. THURSDAY MAY SEE A LIGHT COOLING EFFECT FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT PROBABLY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
THAT WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY UNTIL IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH A LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR
ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF. RAIN CHANCES START INCREASING ON SATURDAY WITH A PEAK FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
LACK OF A CLEAN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE WEEKEND BOUNDARY AND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT COULD BLOCK A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S TO SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN
THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AND INCREASE A FEW DEGREES UNTIL THEY RANGE FROM THE MID
60S INLAND WITH MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
AFTER 15Z, AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT OVERALL BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BACK
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND FOR THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND
INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 79 71 81 / 0 0 0 30
WEST KENDALL 66 82 69 84 / 0 0 0 30
OPA-LOCKA 68 81 70 84 / 0 0 0 30
HOMESTEAD 69 80 71 82 / 0 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 77 70 79 / 0 0 0 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 78 70 80 / 0 0 0 30
PEMBROKE PINES 69 82 71 85 / 0 0 0 30
WEST PALM BEACH 67 78 69 80 / 0 0 0 20
BOCA RATON 68 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 30
NAPLES 63 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ630-650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...17
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