019
FXUS62 KMFL 270700
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING THE
REGION UNDER THE FIRM CONTROL OF MID LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LINGERS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. WPC'S LATEST SFC ANALYSES STILL SHOW A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, AND WHILE IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BRING ANY TANGIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS, IT MAY HELP IN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOFLO.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/GUSTY PERIODS OVER THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ALSO GRADUALLY VEER TO A
MORE ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AND THE
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DISSIPATES.
THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE GULF
COAST, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO DUE
TO THE PREVAILING ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW. SIMILARLY, TONIGHT'S LOWS
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND, AND MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
ACROSS THE GULF, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, THE VEERING, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ESCORT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH A RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING, THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT THE PEAK FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, SUNDAY MAY BE MOST ACTIVE WITH ENSEMBLES
FORECASTING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WITH EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORECASTING PWATS AVERAGING 1.5" THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SHOWERS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, THE REGION AS A WHOLE THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
LINGERING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY
FLOW AND WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S TO
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S INLAND
SOUTH FL AND MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE RETURN OF DRIER AIR AND
WARM WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
AND AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING THAT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WILL RISE INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW TO REACH HIGHS,
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL, IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
AFTER 15Z, AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS
WITH OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SPEEDS REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING HAZARDOUS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE GULF WATERS WILL ALSO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT NOT AS
PROLONGED AS IN THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
SUBSIDING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.
LATEST MODEL ESTIMATES SHOW POSSIBLE 5-6 FT SURF HEIGHTS FOR THOSE
BEACHES. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE 34-36 PERCENT RANGE OVER PORTIONS
OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 70 79 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 66 81 69 / 0 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 69 80 70 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 69 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 69 78 70 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 85 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 67 78 69 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 82 69 79 70 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 85 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ657.
SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES/FIRE WEATHER...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...17
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