835
FXUS62 KMFL 271609
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1209 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST,
WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE OF FL. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BREEZY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH AN OCCASIONAL 30 MPH GUST POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. MIN RH
VALUES OVER SW FL WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT OVER COLLIER
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE METRO AND MID TO UPPER
80S OVER SW FL.
OVERNIGHT IT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60
NEAR THE LAKE, LOWER 60S OVER SW FL, AND AROUND 70 CLOSE TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SPOTS
OVER INTERIOR SW FL EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO E/SE AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE METRO, WHILE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVER SW FL. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND LOW TO
MID 80S OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
ACROSS THE GULF, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, THE VEERING, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ESCORT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH A RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING, THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT THE PEAK FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, SUNDAY MAY BE MOST ACTIVE WITH ENSEMBLES
FORECASTING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WITH EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORECASTING PWATS AVERAGING 1.5" THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SHOWERS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, THE REGION AS A WHOLE THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
LINGERING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY
FLOW AND WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S TO
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S INLAND
SOUTH FL AND MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE RETURN OF DRIER AIR AND
WARM WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
AND AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING THAT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WILL RISE INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW TO REACH HIGHS,
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL, IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO E/SE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US COAST WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AND HAZARDOUS WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
BUILDING SEAS AND SWELL WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ROUGH SURF OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 4-6 FT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 80 72 81 / 0 10 0 30
WEST KENDALL 66 81 69 83 / 0 10 0 30
OPA-LOCKA 68 81 70 83 / 0 10 0 30
HOMESTEAD 69 80 70 81 / 0 10 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 79 70 80 / 0 10 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 78 70 80 / 0 10 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 69 83 71 84 / 0 10 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 68 78 69 80 / 0 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 68 80 70 81 / 0 10 10 30
NAPLES 63 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ657.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page