472
FXUS62 KMFL 272347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A NICE NIGHT IS IN STORE, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. INCREASED WINDS OVER LAND
A COUPLE OF MPH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND SW FLORIDA TO THE
LOWER 70S AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
CONCERNS OF NOTE FOR FRIDAY ARE: THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS DUE TO INCREASING EAST WINDS
AND LINGERING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HIGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE INCOMING SHIFT WILL
EVALUATE THESE CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST,
WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE OF FL. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BREEZY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH AN OCCASIONAL 30 MPH GUST POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. MIN RH
VALUES OVER SW FL WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT OVER COLLIER
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE METRO AND MID TO UPPER
80S OVER SW FL.
OVERNIGHT IT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60
NEAR THE LAKE, LOWER 60S OVER SW FL, AND AROUND 70 CLOSE TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SPOTS
OVER INTERIOR SW FL EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO E/SE AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE METRO, WHILE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVER SW FL. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND LOW TO
MID 80S OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN TIGHT
LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL VEER WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS
RISE INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS INLAND AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE (50-60%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK LOW/VORT MAX PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS, BUT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD GET
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
WITH THE RETREAT OF THE SHORTWAVE, A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID-WEEK BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BUT WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PERHAPS SOME
BKN050 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT THE SE FLORIDA TERMINALS. WIND
070-090 DEGREES GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
AFTER 14Z TO 090-100 DEGREES AT 15-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US COAST WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AND HAZARDOUS WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
BUILDING SEAS AND SWELL WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ROUGH SURF OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 4-6 FT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 81 71 81 / 0 10 10 30
WEST KENDALL 67 82 69 84 / 0 10 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 68 82 70 84 / 0 10 10 30
HOMESTEAD 69 81 71 82 / 0 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 80 71 79 / 0 10 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 79 71 80 / 0 10 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 70 84 71 85 / 0 10 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 68 79 69 80 / 0 10 10 30
BOCA RATON 69 81 70 82 / 0 10 10 30
NAPLES 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ657.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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