349
FXUS62 KMFL 281103
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS TODAY AS PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.0 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT WITH WINDS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
BREEZE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE
EAST COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MID LEVEL WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL PULL UP SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, HOWEVER, BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES LATER ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CREATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION, THIS COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE LOCATED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL VEER WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE,
WITH EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECASTING PWATS AVERAGING
1.7" THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S VORT MAX ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (50-60%)
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, BUT WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ANY PART OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE VULNERABLE TO PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO RETREAT, LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY
FLOW AND WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S TO
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S INLAND
SOUTH FL AND MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNTIL MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT A
DISTINCT, QUICK RETURN OF SUBSTANTIAL DRIER AIR AND WARM WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WILL RISE INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW TO REACH
HIGHS, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL, IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEASTERLY AIR FLOW, FAVORABLE FOR 90+ DEGREES
HEAT INDICES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BREEZY E/SE WINDS TODAY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO,
ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY,
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FEET, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
WATERS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE TODAY, THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. IN ADDITION, WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET ESPECIALLY OFF OF
THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AND COULD
REACH 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THESE SAME AREAS.
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS, NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 82 72 / 20 10 40 40
WEST KENDALL 82 68 82 70 / 20 10 50 30
OPA-LOCKA 82 70 82 71 / 20 10 40 40
HOMESTEAD 80 70 81 72 / 20 10 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 20 10 40 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 72 / 20 10 40 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 71 82 72 / 20 10 40 40
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 81 70 / 20 10 30 40
BOCA RATON 80 70 80 71 / 20 10 40 40
NAPLES 84 65 84 69 / 10 10 50 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-676.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ657.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF
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