927
FXUS62 KMFL 281606
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1206 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN
A BREEZY E/SE FLOW TODAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SOME GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE'VE SEEN SOME SCATTERED QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE SE FL COAST, AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE BEYOND WHAT THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING, SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO, AND LOW TO MID 80S OVER SW FL. FAIRLY MILD EVENING EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE LAKE,
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
ON SATURDAY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH FL AND PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH IN THE KEYS. THE E/SE FLOW WILL
REMAIN BREEZY WITH NON-CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL VEER WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE,
WITH EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECASTING PWATS AVERAGING
1.7" THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S VORT MAX ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (50-60%)
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, BUT WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ANY PART OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE VULNERABLE TO PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO RETREAT, LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY
FLOW AND WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S TO
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S INLAND
SOUTH FL AND MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNTIL MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT A
DISTINCT, QUICK RETURN OF SUBSTANTIAL DRIER AIR AND WARM WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WILL RISE INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW TO REACH
HIGHS, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL, IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEASTERLY AIR FLOW, FAVORABLE FOR 90+ DEGREES
HEAT INDICES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BREEZY E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. 15-20 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A FRESH TO STRONG E/SE WIND FLOW WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY,
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FEET, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
WATERS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE TODAY, THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE COULD REACH 6 TO
8 FEET ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 81 72 83 / 10 30 40 60
WEST KENDALL 68 83 70 85 / 10 30 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 70 83 71 85 / 10 30 40 60
HOMESTEAD 71 81 72 83 / 20 30 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 80 72 82 / 10 20 40 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 80 72 82 / 10 20 40 60
PEMBROKE PINES 71 84 72 86 / 10 30 40 60
WEST PALM BEACH 69 80 70 83 / 10 20 40 60
BOCA RATON 70 81 71 83 / 10 20 40 60
NAPLES 65 84 69 84 / 10 30 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-676.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ657.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF
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