306
FXUS62 KMFL 290642
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, A
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION, DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ALLOWING PWAT VALUES TO RISE AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
COMBINED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, THIS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR
TODAY, THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND
80 ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY PUSHING THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS SUNDAY
PROGRESSES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CAPE VALUES
RISING UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION HEADING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUING, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST AREAS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WELL. AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO DEVELOP COMBINED WITH THE EXTRA LIFT AND INSTABILITY
PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOK TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PUSHES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE TROUGH AXIS PASS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO TAKE OVER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, IT WILL CAUSE
THE WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING RATHER LIGHT ON TUESDAY. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN PLACE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO
DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND 90 ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OFF IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE DUE TO THESE TWO
FEATURES, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, STARTING NEAR
KAPF AND KTMB AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, THEY WILL SLOWLY BE
SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OCCURRING ON SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 72 83 72 / 40 40 60 30
WEST KENDALL 82 70 85 70 / 40 40 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 81 72 84 71 / 40 40 60 30
HOMESTEAD 81 72 83 72 / 40 40 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 72 82 71 / 30 40 70 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 71 / 30 40 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 73 83 72 / 30 40 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 82 70 / 30 40 70 40
BOCA RATON 81 71 82 70 / 30 40 70 40
NAPLES 84 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV
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