261
FXUS62 KMFL 292347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
"PSEUDO" WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA EARLY
THIS EVENING IS MOVING GRADUALLY NORTH AND ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EVERGLADES, GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO, WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE RAINFALL UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SE AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE
BAY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT TODAY, E/SE WINDS
STILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO IN THE 20-
25 MPH RANGE. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE
DAY BEFORE FURTHER SLACKENING OVERNIGHT. 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT
VALUES OF 1.34 INCHES, WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO COME TO ANY TYPE OF
CONSENSUS ON PRECIP TODAY, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GENERAL
HIGHEST POPS OVER SW FL, AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, MOST OF THE THUNDER TODAY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
KEYS AND INTO THE GULF WATERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, TO MIDDLE 80S
OVER SW FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND IT'LL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
AROUND THE LAKE, TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FL. WHILE SOME OF THE 12Z CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY, THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
AXIS CROSSING SOUTH FL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
SUGGESTS THAT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND 500
MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS LATER IN THE DAY, ALONG WITH STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. HREF SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS DROP A QUICK
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO TO MIDDLE 80S OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PUSHES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE TROUGH AXIS PASS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO TAKE OVER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, IT WILL CAUSE
THE WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING RATHER LIGHT ON TUESDAY. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN PLACE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO
DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND 90 ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OFF IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE DUE TO THESE TWO
FEATURES, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS 020-025 LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z, AND
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT TIME. DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THIS FORECAST, MOST LIKELY SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR PENINSULA AND GULF COAST, BUT COULD SKIRT SOME OF THE
EAST COAST SITES THROUGH 04Z. NEXT LIKELY TIME FRAME OF SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 14Z-16Z, WITH PROB30 TSRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH 31/00Z. WIND
MAINLY 090-110 12-15 KNOTS THROUGH 16Z, THEN BECOMING 120-140
DEGREES AFTER 14Z-16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY, WITH A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE ATLANTIC ENDING LATE TONIGHT, BUT REMAINING CAUTIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CALMER CONDITIONS AND THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RISK
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR
TUESDAY AS S/SE WINDS WEAKEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 82 72 84 / 30 60 40 30
WEST KENDALL 70 84 69 87 / 30 50 30 30
OPA-LOCKA 72 84 70 87 / 30 60 40 30
HOMESTEAD 72 83 71 86 / 30 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 83 / 30 60 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 81 71 84 / 30 60 50 40
PEMBROKE PINES 73 86 72 89 / 30 60 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 69 84 / 30 60 60 40
BOCA RATON 71 82 69 85 / 30 60 50 40
NAPLES 69 84 69 84 / 50 40 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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