201
FXUS62 KMFL 300629
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
229 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HEADING
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EXTRA
SOURCE OF LIFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
RISE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (500MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN -10 AND -12C), THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS PALM BEACH
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES, THIS WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RATHER HIGH
RAINFALL RATES PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY PASS OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN OVER THE MID LEVELS. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER
THE LAKE REGION TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
ON MONDAY, MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS TIME AROUND, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND IT WILL BE WASHING OUT A BIT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL
AS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ANYWHERE NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT WILL LOSE IT SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM AS MONDAY
PROGRESSES. NEVERTHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL STILL HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT CAUSES SURFACE
WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THE LOSS OF THE EXTRA MID LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A TRANSITIONING WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
TO TAKE PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
FURTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER LIGHT
WINDS TO GIVE WAY TO THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW
TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE
MID LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND
90 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL EAST COAST SITES
AS A BKN CLOUD DECK DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT FOR NOW
WE'RE INDICATING CHANCES THRU 10Z. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z.EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MODERATE BY THE END OF THE DAY
WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
DROP TO 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY
OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS RISK MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HEADING INTO MONDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING ON TUESDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 71 84 71 / 60 30 20 20
WEST KENDALL 83 69 86 69 / 50 30 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 82 71 86 71 / 60 40 20 20
HOMESTEAD 82 71 85 71 / 50 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 83 71 / 60 40 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 83 71 / 60 40 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 82 71 84 72 / 60 40 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 84 69 / 60 50 30 30
BOCA RATON 82 69 85 70 / 60 40 30 20
NAPLES 84 68 84 69 / 30 20 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV
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