315  
FXUS62 KMFL 301218  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
818 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
MESOANALYSIS AND AIRCRAFT DATA FROM KMIA/KFLL/KPBI THIS MORNING  
INDICATE AN AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THAT REMAINS QUITE  
SATURATED IN THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, OVERLAID  
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY 850MB UP  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. HENCE THE OVERCAST  
SKIES OF SHALLOW CUMULUS AND WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS BUBBLING  
UP OVER THE INSTABILITY LADEN NEARSHORE GULFSTREAM WATERS ON KAMX  
RADAR. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING  
AS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTERMITTENTLY ADVECTS ALONG IN  
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. REVISITING THE ACARS  
SOUNDINGS, A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING, WHICH  
WILL KEEP THE MORNING ACTIVITY FAIRLY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW AT LEAST HERE IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.  
 
HOWEVER CHANGES ARE CERTAINLY AFOOT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, 500MB RTMA  
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF  
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS  
AFOREMENTIONED MID- LEVEL FEATURE WHILE FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE,  
WILL ACT TO BRING A POOL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT, STEEPEN LAPSE RATES,  
AND AID CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE  
REGION (PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE) WILL SET  
THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND  
NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PARAMETERS TO NOTE  
INCLUDE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG, DCAPE OF 1000-1100 J/KG,  
LAPSE RATES OF 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM, AND A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14,000  
FEET WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO -11 C RANGE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE,  
THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY INCREASING, THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT,  
AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS  
GOING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TALLER  
CORES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL THREAT OF HAIL (SMALL TO SUB-  
SEVERE). THE PLETHORA OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL THEN  
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS THE TALLER CORES  
COLLAPSE AND AIR RUSHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF STRONG  
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TIMING APPEARS TO BE AFTER 2PM  
WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY (AND MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT) WILL FOCUS ALONG THE SPINE OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE  
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MODELS STILL DEPICT A DRIFTING OF  
WEAKENING CONVECTION BACK TOWARDS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER IN THE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL  
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HEADING  
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE  
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS  
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EXTRA  
SOURCE OF LIFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES  
RISE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT (500MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN -10 AND -12C), THIS COULD BE  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS PALM BEACH  
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY  
WINDS AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. WITH PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES, THIS WILL ALSO BE  
SUPPORTIVE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RATHER HIGH  
RAINFALL RATES PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST  
COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
 
THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY PASS OFF INTO THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC TONIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION  
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN OVER THE MID LEVELS. WHILE THE  
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE  
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, THERE STILL COULD BE  
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE  
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER  
THE LAKE REGION TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST.  
 
ON MONDAY, MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS  
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  
THIS TIME AROUND, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE  
REGION AND IT WILL BE WASHING OUT A BIT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. AT  
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL  
AS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ANYWHERE NEAR  
SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT WILL LOSE IT SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM AS MONDAY  
PROGRESSES. NEVERTHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL STILL HAVE SOME IMPACT  
ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT CAUSES SURFACE  
WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WITH ENOUGH  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THE LOSS OF THE EXTRA MID LEVEL  
SUPPORT WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS  
THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND. THE BEST  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE  
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY  
WIND FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS  
TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A TRANSITIONING WEATHER PATTERN WILL START  
TO TAKE PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE  
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD  
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT LINGERING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD  
FURTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER LIGHT  
WINDS TO GIVE WAY TO THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH  
JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW  
TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE  
MID LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM  
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND  
90 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING  
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE  
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE  
TWO FEATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO  
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE  
LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
INCREASING SHRA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BRING  
BRIEF BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS BEFORE ACTIVITY FOCUSES INLAND  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND AWAY FROM  
EAST & WEST COAST TERMINALS BEFORE POTENTIALLY DRIFTING BACK  
TOWARDS THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF  
BETWEEN 18-20Z. L/V WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH INLAND  
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS  
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MODERATE BY THE END OF THE DAY  
WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS  
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS  
DROP TO 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY  
OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A GENTLE TO  
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE  
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
BEACHES  
 
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST  
BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS RISK MAY REMAIN  
ELEVATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HEADING INTO MONDAY  
BEFORE IMPROVING ON TUESDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MIAMI 82 73 84 71 / 50 40 30 20  
WEST KENDALL 84 70 87 69 / 50 30 20 10  
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 87 71 / 50 40 30 20  
HOMESTEAD 82 71 85 71 / 40 30 20 10  
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 83 71 / 50 40 40 20  
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 84 71 / 50 40 40 20  
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 88 72 / 50 40 30 20  
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 84 69 / 60 50 40 30  
BOCA RATON 81 70 85 70 / 50 40 40 20  
NAPLES 84 69 84 69 / 30 10 10 10  
 
 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.  
 
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CWC  
LONG TERM....CWC  
AVIATION...HADI  
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