173
FXUS62 KMFL 301604
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1204 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
16Z RTMA MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS DATA INDICATE THAT PARAMETERS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A ONE-
TWO COMBO OF SURFACE HEATING DERIVED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD ALOFT PROVIDE THE NECESSARY BOOST. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION PRESENT ON EARLIER SOUNDINGS (ACARS AND THE 12Z MFL UPPER
AIR BALLOON LAUNCH) CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH A CONTINUED MIXING OUT
OF DRIER AIR WITHIN THE 850MB TO 925MB LAYER. WIDESPREAD SHALLOW
FIELDS OF CUMULUS (AND SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY) ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION ADVECTING BRISKLY ALONG IN THE BACKGROUND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ONCE THE CAPPING MECHANISM FULLY ERODES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
OVERLAND. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK IN
NATURE, WILL ACT TO BRING A POOL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT, STEEPEN MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AID CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE TODAY BY
ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT ALONG
THE EAST AND GULF COAST, CONVERGENCE (AND STORM FOCI) WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE "SPINE" OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS COMPLEX BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND INTERACTIONS OCCUR WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM ALLIGATOR ALLEY NORTHWARDS UP TO CLEWISTON AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE COMMUNITIES.
SOME PARAMETERS TO NOTE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE MODELED SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG, DCAPE OF 1000-1100 J/KG, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM, AND A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14,000 FEET
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO -11 C RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE, THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY INCREASING, THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT, AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO GET THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST CORES GOING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AIDE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TALLER CORES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL THREAT OF
HAIL (SMALL TO SUB- SEVERE). THE PLETHORA OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL THEN SUPPORT THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS THE
TALLER CORES COLLAPSE AND AIR RUSHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM
OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY (AND MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
SPINE OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON, SOME
MODELS STILL DEPICT A SLOW DRIFT OF CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO METRO BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION AS THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITHIN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT THE GREATEST
THREAT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THAT IS THE
LOCATION CLOSEST TO THE AXIS OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT THE FORECAST THROUGH A SEVERE WEATHER LENS,
THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTEWORTHY ITEMS ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST. HREF'S LPMM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH
THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS TODAY, IF HEAVY RAIN DOES MATERIALIZE OVER AN URBAN AREA,
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY SEASONABLE AROUND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND SUSTAINED ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULFSTREAM IN OUR NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BUT VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT IN EFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO BE FAR MORE
LIMITED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORT-WAVE BEING A LONG
FORGOTTEN AFTERTHOUGHT, A THREAT STILL DOES EXIST ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA-BREEZE (MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES)
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM. RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST IN
ADDITION TO A VERY LOW (<2%) BUT NON- ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CLARITY ON
THIS THREAT AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A TRANSITIONING WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
TO TAKE PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
FURTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER LIGHT
WINDS TO GIVE WAY TO THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW
TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE
MID LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND
90 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CONTINUED SHRA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BRING BRIEF
BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS BEFORE ACTIVITY FOCUSES INLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND AWAY FROM EAST & WEST
COAST TERMINALS BEFORE POTENTIALLY DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPOS AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF BETWEEN 18-20Z.
L/V WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH INLAND PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY, WITH A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE ATLANTIC ENDING LATE TONIGHT, BUT REMAINING CAUTIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CALMER CONDITIONS AND THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR TUESDAY AS
S/SE WINDS WEAKEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 84 71 84 / 40 30 20 10
WEST KENDALL 70 87 69 88 / 30 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 87 71 85 / 40 30 20 10
HOMESTEAD 71 85 71 86 / 30 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 71 83 / 40 40 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 84 71 84 / 40 40 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 72 88 72 85 / 40 30 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 69 84 69 85 / 50 40 30 20
BOCA RATON 70 85 70 86 / 40 40 20 10
NAPLES 69 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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