018
FXUS62 KMFL 310620
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S ENERGY WILL ADVECT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING, BUT THE LACK OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
WILL KEEP ADEQUATE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THEREFORE, THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF
BREEZE MOVE INLAND, PLUS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING BEING ACHIEVED. WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FLOW BEING
OUT OF THE S/SSW, THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION TODAY FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE IS LIKELY TO BECOME PINNED OVER THE METRO. AS FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY, BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND FAVOR ANY SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HOWEVER, LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE (ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR ALOFT) FOR SHOWERS TO FORM, MEANING
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND WEAK IN
NATURE.
THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STORMS TODAY IS GOING TO BE OVER BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES GIVEN THE S/SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SW
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT MODERATE SBCAPE (1500-2500
J/KG) DUE TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE
ISOLATED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT.
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE LOWER END BEING OBSERVED NEAR THE
COASTLINES. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COULD APPROACH 90 AS WELL
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PRESIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. WHILE THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME LEVEL OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION AND THE
FORMATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND GULF BREEZE, IT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT AS
WELL AS AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THUS,
RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CREATING
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO LAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE
COASTS AND THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA, BUT CHANCES OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS LOOKS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A LINE MENTION (10-20%). SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
5-10 KTS MONDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG EAST COAST SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY FALLING TO BELOW 10KTS AND 2 FEET OR
LESS RESPECTIVELY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY ABRUPT RISE IN WINDS OR SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, BUT AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEAK AS WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 72 86 74 / 30 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 86 69 88 71 / 20 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 70 86 73 / 30 20 10 0
HOMESTEAD 85 71 86 73 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 73 / 30 20 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 71 84 73 / 30 20 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 85 74 / 30 20 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 70 86 73 / 30 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 85 70 83 73 / 30 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 70 86 70 / 10 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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