055  
FXUS62 KMFL 311414  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
1014 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
GOES IMAGERY DEPICTS LIFTING SHALLOW STRATUS (PREVIOUSLY DENSE  
FOG) ACROSS INLAND LOCALES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS THE  
NOCTURNAL INVERSION ERODES AND THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES. A  
MUGGY AND MOIST START TO THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS VERTICAL  
MIXING BRINGS SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE DISCUSSION & FORECAST FROM THE  
MIDNIGHT SHIFT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG  
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE  
BEEN FICKLE AND UNREPRESENTATIVE FOR OUR REGION OVER THE LAST  
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, MORE DRY AIR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN SHOULD  
INDEED LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT UNFOLDED  
YESTERDAY. PARAMETERS SUCH AS DCAPE 1100+ J/KG, SBCAPE OF  
2000-3000+ J/KG, AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE  
THREAT OF SOME ROBUST STORM ACTIVITY EVEN THOUGH 500MB  
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IF A TALLER  
CORE DEVELOPS, DCAPE AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS (& WIND GUSTS) TO OCCUR.  
 
IN ADDITION, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERY 850MB FLOW MAY PIN THE ATLANTIC  
SEA- BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE MODELS DEPICT CONVECTIVE  
INITATION OCCURING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA-BREEZE  
MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS INLAND, VARIATIONS IN THIS EVOLUTION MAY  
SUPPORT A NON- ZERO (<2%) CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK AS A CORRIDOR  
OF ENHANCED BULK SHEAR AND SRH MATERALIZES ON THE STABLE SIDE OF  
THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYANMICS GIVEN THE FLOW REGIME  
FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.  
 
HREF'S LPMM ALSO HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LOCALIZED SWATHS  
OF 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS  
COULD MATERALIZE IF A STORM IS PINNED ALONG A BOUNDARY AS MID-  
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S ENERGY WILL ADVECT OFFSHORE  
THIS MORNING, BUT THE LACK OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH  
WILL KEEP ADEQUATE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY  
AND TOMORROW. THEREFORE, THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF  
BREEZE MOVE INLAND, PLUS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING BEING ACHIEVED. WITH  
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FLOW BEING  
OUT OF THE S/SSW, THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION TODAY FORMING OVER  
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS THE ATLANTIC SEA  
BREEZE IS LIKELY TO BECOME PINNED OVER THE METRO. AS FLOW BECOMES  
INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY, BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND  
GULF BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND FAVOR ANY SHOWER AND STORM  
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HOWEVER, LESS MOISTURE WILL BE  
AVAILABLE (ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR ALOFT) FOR SHOWERS TO FORM, MEANING  
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND WEAK IN  
NATURE.  
 
THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STORMS TODAY IS GOING TO BE OVER BROWARD  
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES GIVEN THE S/SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SW  
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT MODERATE SBCAPE (1500-2500  
J/KG) DUE TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE  
ISOLATED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT.  
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL, AND  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE LOWER END BEING OBSERVED NEAR THE  
COASTLINES. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COULD APPROACH 90 AS WELL  
TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPANSIVE  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PRESIDE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES, WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. WHILE THERE WILL  
REMAIN SOME LEVEL OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION AND THE  
FORMATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND GULF BREEZE, IT WILL  
LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT AS  
WELL AS AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THUS,  
RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS  
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND  
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CREATING  
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY  
TO LAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE  
COASTS AND THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S FOR THE  
INTERIOR SECTIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE PROROGATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA-  
BREEZE INLAND WILL VEER WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS BACK TO A  
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER ITS PASSAGE. SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH  
FLORIDA, HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE  
REMAINS LOW. FUTURE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE LATEST DATA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH  
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY FALLING TO BELOW 10KTS AND 2 FEET OR  
LESS RESPECTIVELY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY ABRUPT RISE IN WINDS OR SEAS.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, BUT AS WINDS  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO TUESDAY.  
AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEAK AS WINDS  
INCREASE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 85 72 86 74 / 40 20 10 0  
WEST KENDALL 87 68 89 71 / 30 10 10 0  
OPA-LOCKA 86 71 88 73 / 40 20 10 0  
HOMESTEAD 85 71 87 73 / 20 10 10 0  
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 84 73 / 40 30 10 0  
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 71 85 73 / 40 30 10 0  
PEMBROKE PINES 88 72 89 74 / 40 20 10 0  
WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 86 73 / 40 30 10 0  
BOCA RATON 85 71 86 73 / 40 30 10 0  
NAPLES 84 70 85 70 / 0 0 10 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HADI  
LONG TERM....REDMAN  
AVIATION...HADI  
 
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