275
FXUS62 KMFL 201133
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
A BIT OF AN IMPRESSIVE LOCALIZED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE AND INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS OPPOSED TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS
GRADUALLY PICKING UP WITH DIURNAL HEATING BEGINNING. THE FORECAST
FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TRAIN OF RECENT SHORTWAVES WILL DECREASE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE, WHILE THE APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
INTO THE GULF WILL DECREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY, GRADIENTS WILL
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN. NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE THE ELEVATED WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, AND THE UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF, WITH LOW 70S MORE LIKELY
NEAR THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING'S STRONGHOLD OF OUR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, THERE WILL NOT BE A SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE AIR MASS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST APPROXIMATELY 50-
70% OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE, EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SURFACE LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. WITH THESE CHANGES, THE SEA
BREEZE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLES (PWATS ~1.2"),
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAS RISEN TO
WIDESPREAD 20-35% POPS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE
GULF COAST. WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGE AND MORE DETAILS TO
DETERMINE AS TIME APPROACHES, WE WILL BE GRATEFUL FOR ANY RAIN THAT
US MUCH NEEDED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE 60S, EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST AS LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY ENHANCE INLAND. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AGAIN TODAY. WHILE THESE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TOMORROW,
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY CALMER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
THE PERSISTENT, ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN THE FORECAST FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIFE THREATENING
SWIMMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR INEXPERIENCED OCEAN SWIMMERS.
SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH BREAKERS AROUND
3-5 FEET TODAY, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 2-4 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (AROUND 40%) ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET, CAUTION SHOULD
BE EXERCISED OVER THE COMING DAYS. KEEP IN MIND THAT COUNTY-ENACTED
BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH FLORIDA AS
WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 73 82 72 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 69 85 68 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 84 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 72 83 71 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 72 81 72 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 72 82 72 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 87 72 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 70 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 83 72 83 71 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 88 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...HADI
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