543
FXUS62 KMFL 210514
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
MESOANALYSIS, ACARS DATA FROM SOFLO AIRPORTS, AS WELL AS THE 12Z MFL
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATE THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINING IN PLACE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, PWATS OF 0.6-0.8
ACCORDING TO RTMA ANALYSIS, AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAM
CURRENTLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CONFIGURATION OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, THE STATUS QUO
REMAINS AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TODAY RESULTING IN BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS AND A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, AND THE UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COLLIER, GLADES, AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE
WIDESPREAD LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO
KEEP THINGS WARMER WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S MORE
LIKELY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH THE CAVEAT THAT SURFACE
WINDS DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING'S STRONGHOLD OF OUR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, THERE WILL NOT BE A SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE AIR MASS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST APPROXIMATELY 50-
70% OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE, EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SURFACE LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. WITH THESE CHANGES, THE SEA
BREEZE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLES (PWATS ~1.2"),
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAS RISEN TO
WIDESPREAD 20-35% POPS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE
GULF COAST. WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGE AND MORE DETAILS TO
DETERMINE AS TIME APPROACHES, WE WILL BE GRATEFUL FOR ANY RAIN THAT
US MUCH NEEDED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE 60S, EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
APF SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF OUR GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AGAIN TODAY. WHILE THESE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TOMORROW, CAUTIONARY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY CALMER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
THE PERSISTENT, ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN THE FORECAST FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIFE THREATENING SWIMMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR INEXPERIENCED OCEAN SWIMMERS.
SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH BREAKERS AROUND 3-
5 FEET TODAY, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 2-4 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S) ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET,
CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED OVER THE COMING DAYS. KEEP IN MIND THAT
COUNTY-ENACTED BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 83 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 84 69 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 82 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 71 86 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 69 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 86 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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