331
FXUS62 KMFL 211129
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
WAKE UP TEMPERATURES VARY GREATLY ACROSS RELATIVE SHORT DISTANCES
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF OUR AREA (AND AWAY FROM MARITIME
INFLUENCES) ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TAKE YOUR
PICK OF ACARS DATA FROM ANY OF THE REPORTING AIRPORTS FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA AND YOU WILL SEE THE SAME GENERAL REPRESENTATION, DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AT
ROUGHLY 825-850MB AND A SMALL MOIST LEVEL AT 250MB (UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, EASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TICK UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ALOFT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SPREADS THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE COMING DAYS. HOWEVER,
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS ELONGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHOUT MUCH OF A
TRAJECTORY CHANGE, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSEQUENTLY NO RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST, WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COASTS (AWAY FROM THE EASTERLY MARITIME INFLUENCE).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
MODELS DEPICT A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION TO
START THE LONG TERM WITH A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE E
CONUS AND PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE
RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOFLO UNDER OVERALL SUBSIDENCE,
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWATS BELOW OR AROUND 1 INCH, AND
GENERALLY DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE,
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES AND EURO
GUIDANCE SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE ENE OF SOFLO WHILE ERODING IT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
WITH RETURNING ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MODIFY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACTIVITY. LATEST POPS/WX
COVERAGE REMAINS IN THE 15-25% RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND 20-30%
BY SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, AND WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BECOMING THE MAIN
FOCAL POINT FOR TALLER/DEEPER CONVECTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH MUCH OF SOFLO, EXCEPT FOR A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S AT TIMES. MORNING LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR
THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
APF SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, THEY'RE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER THAN USUAL RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 72 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 87 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 87 66 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...HADI
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