743
FXUS62 KMFL 212309
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
709 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER INTERIOR SW FL WHERE WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A SUBSEQUENT (IMPRESSIVELY) STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. TAKE YOUR PICK OF ACARS
DATA FROM ANY OF THE REPORTING AIRPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND YOU WILL SEE THE SAME GENERAL REPRESENTATION OVER AND
OVER AGAIN, DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WITH A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT ROUGHLY 825-850MB AND A SMALL MOIST
LEVEL AT 250MB (REPRESENTATIVE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER). FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WIDESPREAD/OVERSPREADING LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD
BRISKLY ADVECTING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIVER OF
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL COINCIDE WITH SOME THIN UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS DRIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET-
STREAM CURRENTLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CONFIGURATION
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL FEATURE. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, OUR PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STATUS QUO AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES A SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COASTS (AWAY FROM THE EASTERLY MARITIME INFLUENCE) WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
MODELS DEPICT A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION TO
START THE LONG TERM WITH A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE E
CONUS AND PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE
RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOFLO UNDER OVERALL SUBSIDENCE,
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWATS BELOW OR AROUND 1 INCH, AND
GENERALLY DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE,
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES AND EURO
GUIDANCE SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE ENE OF SOFLO WHILE ERODING IT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
WITH RETURNING ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MODIFY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACTIVITY. LATEST POPS/WX
COVERAGE REMAINS IN THE 15-25% RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND 20-30%
BY SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, AND WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BECOMING THE MAIN
FOCAL POINT FOR TALLER/DEEPER CONVECTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH MUCH OF SOFLO, EXCEPT FOR A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S AT TIMES. MORNING LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR
THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. SO WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, THEY'RE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER THAN USUAL RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 83 72 83 / 0 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 85 69 86 / 0 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 71 85 / 0 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 71 83 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 72 82 / 0 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 82 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 72 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 70 83 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 83 71 83 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 66 85 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...CMF
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