311
FXUS62 KMFL 220631
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DAMPENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS PRESENT
OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL ELONGATE BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND A
WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH IN THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP THE DEEP-LAYER DRY
AIR OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, AND UP TO THE LOW 90S TO THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIP TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE BEING
PUSHED FURTHER INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND KEEP OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER SOFLO ON THURSDAY. LATEST
NBM AND ENSEMBLES HAVE DRIED A BIT MORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INITIAL POPS NOW IN THE 10-15% CHANCE RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 1 INCH, AND GENERALLY DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE ERODES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST SOLUTIONS PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING RAPIDLY FOLLOWING.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN VERY MODEST POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH 20-25% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
RETURNING ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH EXTRA LIFTING FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S
AT TIMES. MORNING LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND,
AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT ONSHORE WILL BE LIKELY AT APF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY LATE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE RIPS MAY NOT BE
AS PROLIFIC ON WEDNESDAY, THE CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. THE THREAT RAMPS UP AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY ONCE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 69 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 71 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 72 86 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 85 67 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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