057
FXUS62 KMFL 221619
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1219 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
AS WE START OFF THE SHORT TERM LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE WE
NOTICE A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE EASTERN COAST VIA THE
CUMULUS FIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE AND DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A WHOLE
IT LOOKS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DAMPENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD MOVING
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP THE DRY AIR OVER FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR, WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST
WHERE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE BEING
PUSHED FURTHER INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND KEEP OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER SOFLO ON THURSDAY. LATEST
NBM AND ENSEMBLES HAVE DRIED A BIT MORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INITIAL POPS NOW IN THE 10-15% CHANCE RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 1 INCH, AND GENERALLY DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE ERODES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST SOLUTIONS PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING RAPIDLY FOLLOWING.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN VERY MODEST POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH 20-25% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
RETURNING ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH EXTRA LIFTING FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S
AT TIMES. MORNING LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND,
AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT ONSHORE WILL BE LIKELY AT APF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY LATE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE RIPS MAY NOT BE
AS PROLIFIC ON WEDNESDAY, THE CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. THE THREAT RAMPS UP AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY ONCE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 83 72 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 69 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 71 83 71 83 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 82 72 82 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 82 72 83 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 72 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 67 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...99
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