444
FXUS62 KMFL 222307
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
707 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
OVERALL A NICE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND MILD TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND SW FL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SW FL TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
AS WE START OFF THE SHORT TERM LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE WE
NOTICE A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE EASTERN COAST VIA THE
CUMULUS FIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE AND DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A WHOLE
IT LOOKS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DAMPENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD MOVING
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP THE DRY AIR OVER FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR, WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST
WHERE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOFLO, WITH THE BULK OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ABOVE 850MB CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% ALOFT. THUS, DESPITE CONTINUED SEA BREEZES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THE OVERALL PATTERN LIMITS RAIN CHANCES. A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT
ASIDE FROM A VERY SLIGHT UPTICK IN EASTERLY FLOW. PWATS CLIMB
SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
BUT NBM POPS HAVE REMAINED LOW IN THE 10-15% PERCENT RANGE FOR
THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST, PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE ENE OF
SOFLO AND ERODING IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PROVIDING FOR
MODEST POPS UP ABOUT 15-25% EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROBUST RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW/SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE EAST COAST,
THOUGH INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY POKE INTO THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD HOLD STEADY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOW
70S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BECOMING E/SE 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z. A WESTERLY
GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY LATE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE RIPS MAY NOT BE
AS PROLIFIC ON WEDNESDAY, THE CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. THE THREAT RAMPS UP AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY ONCE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 69 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 72 81 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 82 71 82 / 0 10 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 73 86 72 87 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 71 83 71 84 / 0 10 0 10
NAPLES 66 86 66 89 / 0 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...CMF
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