250
FXUS62 KMFL 231133
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPS SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A MAINLY DRY AND
BREEZE EAST WIND FLOW. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW/SCARCE FOR MENTIONABLE POPS, BUT MAY
INCLUDE A SMALL 10% POP AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR 90
OR A FEW LOWER 90S OVER INTERIOR SW FLORIDA, AND 80S ELSEWHERE
(COOLEST TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST).
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TODAY
AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TODAY AND
THURSDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHTENING
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A VERY WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS UPTICK IN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW PWAT VALUES INCREASING
AND RANGING BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, THIS UPTICK WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION LATER ON THURSDAY.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WHICH WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOW
TOPPED AND RATHER SHORT LIVED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS VERY SIMILAR FEATURING MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MID LEVEL FLOW SPLITS OFF
AS A WEAKENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE REGION
KEEPING ANY FRONTS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THESE EASTERLY WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE
BREEZE, HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT
LIVED DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUITE TRIES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF A
MOISTURE SURGE AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES AS IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT APPROACHES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY PUSHES, THIS MAY HELP TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND INCREASES
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL BKN CEILINGS
IN THE 3,500-5,000 FT RANGE WILL BE RATHER BRIEF IN DURATION AND
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME ALONG THE MIA-FLL-PBI CORRIDOR, AND
PRIMARILY FROM 18Z-00Z AT KAPF. WINDS 090-100 DEGREES GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z-00Z, EXCEPT A SW SEABREEZE AT KAPF
18Z-01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
IN GENERAL, A MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS COULD
BECOME FRESH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WINDS MAY BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR
LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
WITH ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 72 84 73 / 0 0 20 10
WEST KENDALL 86 68 86 70 / 0 0 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 84 72 / 0 0 20 10
HOMESTEAD 83 71 84 72 / 0 0 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 72 84 73 / 0 0 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 84 70 83 70 / 0 0 10 10
BOCA RATON 83 71 81 71 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 86 66 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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