633
FXUS62 KMFL 231852
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
PERSISTENT SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS STILL QUITE
DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW LAYER FROM ABOUT
3,000-5,000 FT AGL, THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A 10% POP FOR INTERIOR SW
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES MODELS
SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MANAGES TO FORM WOULD
RESULT IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST METRO AREAS, BUT STILL ALLOWING
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.
AFTER A MILD AND MAINLY DRY NIGHT, THURSDAY'S PATTERN LOOKS
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S. THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS A SUBTLE
INVERTED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES WHICH CAN BE
SEEN TODAY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST AND
APPROACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY, AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER STRAITS AND FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEL PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS MOISTURE INCREASE BY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE MIAMI-FORT
LAUDERDALE METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 20% POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PRIMARILY AT THE
LOW LEVELS, WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT,
LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED, AND QPF SHOULD
STAY AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST COAST, MID 80S GULF
COAST, AND 90 TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR SW FLORIDA. WITH DEWPOINTS
STAYING IN THE 60S, DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE MID 90S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS, AND STAY MAINLY IN
THE 80S MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER
INTERIOR SW FLORIDA TO THE LOWER 70S EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
FEATURING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SPLITS OFF AS A WEAKENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURE WILL BE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING ANY FRONTS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THESE EASTERLY WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE BREEZE.
HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT-LIVED
DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUITE TRIES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF A
MOISTURE SURGE AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES AS IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT APPROACHES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY PUSHES, THIS MAY HELP TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND INCREASES
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
3,500-5,000 FT RANGE MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT 20Z (EXCEPT 01Z GULF
COAST/KAPF). WIND 090-110 DEGREES GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES ALONG THE MIA-FLL-PBI CORRIDOR THROUGH 00Z, THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTER 14Z. SW SEA BREEZE AT KAPF TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
IN GENERAL, A MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS COULD
BECOME FRESH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GULF BREEZE. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2
FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
THE MODERATE AND PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS DAYS OF ONSHORE WINDS HAVE LIKELY
CAUSED PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR WHICH PROMOTE RIP CURRENT
FORMATION. SOME DECREASE IN RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS
EAST WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME BY THAT POINT IN TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WILL
APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR SW FLORIDA DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S. SPC HAS INTERIOR SW FLORIDA IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK
BOTH DAYS, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 83 73 83 / 0 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 68 86 70 85 / 0 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 72 85 / 0 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 71 83 72 83 / 0 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 82 72 82 / 0 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 82 72 82 / 0 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 72 87 73 87 / 0 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 82 / 0 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 71 83 71 83 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 66 88 67 88 / 10 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...MOLLEDA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page