240
FXUS62 KMFL 240708
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
NOT TO MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL SUBTLE FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE FIRST FEATURE WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
SMALL WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS A
VERY WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF AS TODAY PROGRESSES. IN RESPONSE, A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND CREATE GUSTY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO CREATE AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER SHARP
GRADIENT IN PWAT VALUES SETTING UP OVER THE CWA WITH VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.0 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. LOCATIONS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY WILL SEE PWATS RISE AND RANGE BETWEEN
1.1 AND 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEING
FOUND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE METRO AREAS. WHILE THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED
DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
MOVING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A RATHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WHILE THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG, THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MOVING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A BIT OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE REMNANTS OF THE VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE BOUNDARY (OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT) AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE ALONG WITH THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION, THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES TO SPARK
OFF A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINING HIGH, THESE
SHOWER CHANCES MAY LINGER LONGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT
THAT TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED AS
THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
E/NE WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 18Z. SEA BREEZES WILL RETURN TO APF AROUND 18Z.
VCSH MAY BE NEEDED AT KTMB/KMIA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS,
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EACH DAY COULD SHIFT AND BECOME WEST
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4
FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 73 83 73 / 10 0 10 0
WEST KENDALL 86 70 85 69 / 10 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 86 71 85 71 / 10 0 10 0
HOMESTEAD 84 72 83 71 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 81 72 / 10 0 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 72 81 72 / 0 0 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 87 73 86 73 / 10 0 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 72 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 88 67 88 66 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
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