640
FXUS62 KMFL 241903
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL SUBTLE FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE FIRST FEATURE WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
SMALL WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS A
VERY WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF AS TODAY PROGRESSES. IN RESPONSE, A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND CREATE GUSTY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO CREATE AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER SHARP
GRADIENT IN PWAT VALUES SETTING UP OVER THE CWA WITH VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.0 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. LOCATIONS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY WILL SEE PWATS RISE AND RANGE BETWEEN
1.1 AND 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEING
FOUND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE METRO AREAS. WHILE THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED
DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
MOVING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A RATHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG, THIS SYNOPTIC
SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE REMNANTS OF THE VERY
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE
DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BOUNDARY (OR
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT) AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT,
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE REGION, THIS COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE SEA BREEZES TO SPARK OFF A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE LATEST FORECAST
REFLECTS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINING HIGH, THESE SHOWER CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
E/NE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS. GULF BREEZE AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. NO MENTION
OF VCSH, BUT THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS,
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EACH DAY COULD SHIFT AND BECOME WEST
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4
FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONALLY,
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 83 73 83 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 70 85 69 86 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 72 85 71 86 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 72 83 71 84 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 72 82 / 20 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 81 72 83 / 20 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 74 86 73 87 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 70 83 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 72 84 71 83 / 20 0 0 0
NAPLES 67 88 66 87 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page