201
FXUS62 KMFL 250546
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE IN CONTROL
TODAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
FL, HOWEVER A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS DUE
TO A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO, TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SW FL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SW FL TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
MOVING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A RATHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG, THIS SYNOPTIC
SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE REMNANTS OF THE VERY
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE
DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BOUNDARY (OR
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT) AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IN ANY EVENT,
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE REGION, THIS COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE SEA BREEZES TO SPARK OFF A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE LATEST FORECAST
REFLECTS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINING HIGH, THESE SHOWER CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SCT MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. EASTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
PERSISTENT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ON SUNDAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 72 84 70 / 10 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 85 69 86 67 / 10 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 86 70 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 71 84 70 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 72 82 70 / 10 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 72 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 72 87 71 / 10 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 71 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 88 66 87 67 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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