673
FXUS62 KMFL 250717
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE IN CONTROL
TODAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
FL, HOWEVER A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS DUE
TO A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO, TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SW FL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND SW FL TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
ENSEMBLES AND LONG RANGE GLOBALS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN HAVING
A DEEP TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTABLISHING IN
ITS WAKE. GFS/MSLP SHOWS A ROBUST 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, AND GRADUALLY MIGRATING SE TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A VERY DISUSE SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE PUSHING THE HIGH CLOSER TO
OUR AREA. SOFLO REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH, WITH PERSISTING E/ENE FLOW THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX A BIT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT FLOW, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TOO WEAK TO ERODE THE
HIGH AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE. BUT IT MAY ERODE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENERGIZE A FEW SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. BUT POPS/WX
COVERAGE REMAIN MODEST WITH 20-25% OF RAIN, FAVORING THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION.
LATEST NBM/GLOBALS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BRIEF
MOISTURE INTRUSION, WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY CENTERED TO THE ENE OF SOFLO, EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE, WITH MAINLY SINGLE
DIGIT POPS EACH DAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, AND INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SCT MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. EASTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
PERSISTENT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ON SUNDAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 72 84 71 / 10 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 85 69 86 67 / 10 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 86 70 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 71 84 70 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 72 82 71 / 10 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 72 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 72 87 71 / 10 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 88 66 87 68 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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