262
FXUS62 KMFL 261056
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE OVER THE NE GULF AND ANOTHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THINGS PRIMARILY DRY THIS
WEEKEND. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS AND AT TIMES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BRUSH THE SE FL COAST BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10%. ON SUNDAY SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF FL, WHICH COULD TOUCH
OFF A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED, WHILE INLAND AND
SW FL WILL BE QUITE TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70
CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST SCENARIO, EXCEPT
FOR SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE LATE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND LONG RANGE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE SE
CONUS, WITH A 1028 MB CENTER GRADUALLY MIGRATING SE TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, MODEL MSLP ANALYSES DEPICT A DECAYING SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THE RIDGE CLOSER TO OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP
GENERALLY E/ENE WINDS IN PLACE TO START THE WORK WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX A BIT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT FLOW ON MONDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS FURTHER WEAKEN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY, WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA REMAINING IN PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
LOOKS LESS LIKELY, WITH POPS/WX COVERAGE NOW DOWN INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE, AND MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS AROUND THE LAKE
REGION. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENERGIZE A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES, WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOFLO.
NBM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BRING DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY CENTERED TO THE ENE OF SOFLO, EXPECT THE
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE, WITH
MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS EACH DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, AND INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE 12Z
FORECAST PERIOD FOR EAST COAST SITES. AN AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE IS
EXPECTED AT APF THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZE
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2
FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND A FOOT OR LESS IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. THE RISK LESSENS ON SUNDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS,
HOWEVER AN ELEVATED RISK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 70 85 71 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 67 87 68 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 70 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 70 85 70 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 70 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 68 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 69 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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