531
FXUS62 KMFL 221647
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING
PLACED THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH PWAT VALUES SLOWLY
SURGING AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL PER ACARS DATA AT MIA AND PBI AIRPORTS,
UP TO 1.6 FROM 1.28 INCHES EARLIER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, WITH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS WILL DRIVE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND THE
EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED, BUT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
IN NATURE, AND COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER IN THE
PAST COUPLE MODEL CYCLES, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER URBAN AREAS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL AS THE LATEST HREF LPMM SHOWS
POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN HOT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE COAST WITH INLAND LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER
90S ONCE AGAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
ENVIRONMENT, BUT WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO LINGER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND ONCE AGAIN POSE A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOMORROW, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR COVERAGE TO
OVERSPREAD FURTHER INLAND AS COMPARED TO ACTIVITY TODAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES COMBINED WITH AN EARLIER START OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH INLAND LOCATIONS MAINLY
PEAKING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH METRO AREAS REACHING THE LOW
90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE THIS
WEEKEND WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW LESSENING GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE AXIS OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA-BREEZES
TO PROPAGATE INLAND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS INLAND LOCALES EACH AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LOW LAPSE RATES AND USHER IN
THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS WEEKEND,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN LARGE PART DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS AND GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE INDEED POSSIBLE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR DIURNAL PEAKS.
AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVE QUIET MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE WEAK PERIOD, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A REINFORCING PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AS INWARD PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS DICTATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PM SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED IN THIS CYCLE, SHORT-
FUSE AMENDMENTS COULD BE NEEDED AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL, BUT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BUT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
RETURN EARLY ON FRIDAY, WITH VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 92 78 90 / 20 60 10 40
WEST KENDALL 75 93 74 92 / 20 50 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 77 93 77 93 / 20 60 10 40
HOMESTEAD 77 91 77 90 / 20 50 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 77 88 / 30 60 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 90 77 90 / 30 60 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 79 95 79 94 / 30 60 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 76 88 77 90 / 50 60 20 40
BOCA RATON 77 91 77 91 / 40 60 20 40
NAPLES 75 90 74 91 / 10 30 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...ATV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page