296
FXUS62 KMFL 231140
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER
START TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
HELPS TO COUNTERACT ALREADY GROWING INSTABILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA NOW SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BEGINNING AFTER 1-2PM, AND OVERSPREADING
THE REGION INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST, OR TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
WITH THE BASE OF AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHING OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, FAVORABLE DYNAMICS (DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET, COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -8C TO 9C) WILL STILL BE
SITUATED ALOFT OF THE REGION TODAY. THESE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE
ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RD'S OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12 TO 8PM TODAY.
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ALOFT AND COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DISCRETE CORES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING A HAIL THREAT WITH THE EVENTUAL STORM EVOLUTION INTO MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS/LINES ALONG BOUNDARIES PRIMARILY RESULTING IN A WIND
THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO IF A STORM REMAINS
ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG A BOUNDARY. THE 00Z HREF LPMM SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF A HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS SEEING 3 TO 5+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOOKING AT
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, THE 00Z HREF INDICATES A 60-80% CHANCE OF
REACHING 1 INCH OF RAINFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO. WHEN RAISING THE THRESHOLD OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL TO AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES, PROBABILITIES DROP TO 20-40%. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT EVEN WHEN THE THRESHOLDS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS RAISED TO 4
INCHES, THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS OF 10-20% ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS TOMORROW. THE HREF LPMM IS GOOD AT PICKING UP ON
THESE TYPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS EVEN IF EXACT SPATIAL
ACCURACY OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR CANNOT BE
DETERMINED AHEAD OF TIME.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES COMBINED WITH AN
EARLIER START OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH INLAND SW FLORIDA LOCATIONS MAINLY PEAKING EAST
COAST OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH METRO AREAS REACHING
THE LOW 90S.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE BY
SATURDAY WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW LESSENING GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE AXIS OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL NOW WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA-BREEZES TO PROPAGATE
INLAND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS INLAND LOCALES EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH SEA-BREEZES DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY PUSH INLAND OVER
BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM BUT STILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LOW LAPSE RATES
AND USHER IN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE
ACTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN LARGE PART
DUE TO CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS
AND GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE INDEED POSSIBLE AS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)
WILL ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR DIURNAL PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST FOCI OF CONVECTION
TO RESIDE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EACH
AFTERNOON. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BOTH METRO AREAS BEFORE THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONGEALS
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS ALOFT, STORM MODE WILL
PRIMARILY BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH LARGE COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXISTING ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD, KEPT AT BAY BY CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEXT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MAINTAINED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY MORE LIMITED. AS
THE NEXT FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, SURFACE FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINE. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIME
OF IMPACTS BUT SHORT-FUSE AMENDMENTS COULD BE NEEDED AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 78 89 79 / 60 30 50 20
WEST KENDALL 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 77 92 78 / 60 30 50 20
HOMESTEAD 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 78 / 60 30 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 77 / 60 30 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 93 79 93 80 / 60 30 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 76 / 50 30 50 20
BOCA RATON 91 77 91 77 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 74 / 40 30 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
UPDATE/AVIATION...ATV
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