568
FXUS62 KMFL 240504
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
104 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME COMPLETELY DIFFUSE, WITH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY MOISTURE ELONGATED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN CHANGE
COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAM LIFT WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA-BREEZES
TO PROPAGATE INLAND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS INLAND LOCALES EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW POP
UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH SEA-BREEZES DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY PUSH INLAND
OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM BUT STILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LOW LAPSE RATES
AND USHER IN THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION BETWEEN 2PM AND 9PM THIS AFTERNOON. DCAPE VALUES
OF >1000 J/KG, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM, AND AMPLE
SURFACE CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS. 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -8C TO -10C
WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF AN INITIAL HAIL THREAT WITH
DISCRETE CORES BEFORE A SECONDARY THREAT OF DOWNBURSTS LATER IN THE
LIFE CYCLE OF THE STORM. GIVEN BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, WOULDN'T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL OF A FUNNEL CLOUD OR WEAK LANDSPOUT DEVELOPING
EITHER. HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN LARGE PART DUE TO CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, SPRAWLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BRING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS THE COASTS (ESPECIALLY THE
GULF COAST) ALONG THE EDGE OF EXPANDING COLD POOLS. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE INTENSE AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
FADING, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RAISES OFFSHORE.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT ON SUNDAY AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ONCE AGAIN DICTATE WHERE THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. A FEW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER BOTH METROS BEFORE THE SEA-BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND
ACTIVITY CONGEALS ACROSS THE EVERGLADES, INLAND SW FLORIDA
COMMUNITIES, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONCE AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COASTS ALONG SPRAWLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS AND
GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE INDEED POSSIBLE AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) WILL
ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR DIURNAL PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST FOCI OF CONVECTION
TO RESIDE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EACH
AFTERNOON. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BOTH METRO AREAS BEFORE THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONGEALS
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS ALOFT, STORM MODE WILL
PRIMARILY BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH LARGE COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXISTING ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD, KEPT AT BAY BY CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A CUT-OFF LOW WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ARRIVE
ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THIS IS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
HOW THIS FEATURE MAY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER REGIME, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A STORMIER
PERIOD TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WINDS BECOME SE AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 16Z WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE
EXPECTED AT APF THIS AFTERNOON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 89 79 / 50 10 40 20
WEST KENDALL 92 75 91 76 / 50 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 78 92 78 / 50 10 40 20
HOMESTEAD 89 78 89 78 / 50 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 87 79 / 50 20 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 88 78 / 50 20 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 94 80 93 80 / 50 10 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 88 76 / 50 20 40 10
BOCA RATON 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 40 10
NAPLES 91 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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