881
FXUS62 KMFL 241700
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TWO SEA
BREEZES CURRENTLY WORK INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND
COASTAL COLLIER AREAS, AND CONVECTION IS SET TO BEGIN DEVELOPING.
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE TWO SEA BREEZES WILL MEET, AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
INCREASES, 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH (-9 TO -10C), AND
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN LARGE PART DUE TO
CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, SPRAWLING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE COASTS (ESPECIALLY THE GULF COAST) ALONG THE EDGE OF EXPANDING
COLD POOLS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE INTENSE AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE FADING, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RAISES
OFFSHORE.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT ON SUNDAY AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ONCE AGAIN DICTATE WHERE THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. A FEW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER BOTH METROS BEFORE THE SEA-BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND
ACTIVITY CONGEALS ACROSS THE EVERGLADES, INLAND SW FLORIDA
COMMUNITIES, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONCE AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COASTS ALONG SPRAWLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS AND
GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE INDEED POSSIBLE AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) WILL
ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR DIURNAL PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST FOCI OF CONVECTION
TO RESIDE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EACH
AFTERNOON. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BOTH METRO AREAS BEFORE THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONGEALS
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS ALOFT, STORM MODE WILL
PRIMARILY BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH LARGE COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXISTING ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD, KEPT AT BAY BY CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A CUT-OFF LOW WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ARRIVE
ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THIS IS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
HOW THIS FEATURE MAY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER REGIME, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A STORMIER
PERIOD TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING INLAND
OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR ALL SITES, BUT SHORT-FUSE AMENDMENTS COULD BE ISSUED
IF NEEDED. SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ALONG BOTH COASTLINES,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ELEVATED FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY
BEACHES TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 79 89 / 20 50 20 50
WEST KENDALL 76 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 50
OPA-LOCKA 78 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 50
HOMESTEAD 78 89 78 90 / 10 50 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 87 79 88 / 20 50 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 89 / 20 50 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 80 93 / 20 50 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 30 50 20 50
BOCA RATON 78 90 77 90 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 74 91 74 90 / 30 70 30 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV/HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...ATV
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