373
FXUS62 KMFL 251143
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE PATTERN SETUP IS HIGHLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK MID-LEVEL AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GULF
AND BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO RE-DEVELOP ALOFT. UNDER THIS SETUP,
MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN, THE SEA
BREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE INLAND AND CREATE A
LIFTING MECHANISM NECESSARY FOR INITIATION, AND STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
CAN OCCUR WHEN THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE WITH ONE ANOTHER. CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND THUS IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. HOWEVER, STORMS CAN
STILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE METRO AREAS AFTER THEY HAVE FIRST FORMED.
FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH (500MB
TEMPS AROUND -9 TO -10C) TO ALLOW FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES, WHICH IN
RETURN INCREASES INSTABILITY AND GIVES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. MORE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL. PRIMARY HAZARD THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR HAIL, BUT WITH WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE DECENT MELTING FROM
FALLING HAIL. NEVERTHELESS, CAN'T RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY. A FINAL
DETAIL TO POINT OUT IS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS MAY
OCCUR DUE TO DOWNBURSTS AS STORM CORES COLLAPSE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INVERTED-V SETUPS (LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE AND SMALL DEPRESSIONS IN THE MID-
LEVELS) ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVAPORATIVE COLD POOLS TO DEVELOP AND RUSH TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF DRY MICROBURSTS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE AGAIN
TODAY FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION AND WE WILL BE MONITORING IT
CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP, ALTHOUGH BROAD RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD EVEN MORE AND 500MB TEMPS LIKELY RISE BY 1-2 DEG C,
THUS PROBABLY NOT AS LIKELY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE ANALYZED FURTHER IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MONDAY
WILL STILL HAVE SOME SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FURTHER CONVECTION VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUOUS WEAK
FLOW PATTERN AND THUS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEING CAUSED
EACH DAY BY THE SEA BREEZES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INLAND
AND INTERIOR AREAS FOR SEEING THE MOST AND STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AS FURTHER CONVECTION CAN FORM
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ALSO SOME CONVECTION CAN DRIFT TOWARDS
THE METRO AREAS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DEEPER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN STRENGTH. GIVEN
THAT THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL EXACTLY CHANGE THE
LOCAL WEATHER, BUT IT DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMIER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING. GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WELL INLAND OF
SITES, BUT WE WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND INTO
EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO A
PERSISTENT E/SE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 50 20
WEST KENDALL 91 76 91 76 / 20 20 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 78 92 78 / 20 20 50 20
HOMESTEAD 90 78 90 78 / 20 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 50 20
BOCA RATON 91 78 90 78 / 40 30 50 20
NAPLES 91 74 90 75 / 60 30 60 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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