321
FXUS62 KMFL 251646
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1246 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TWO SEA
BREEZES CURRENTLY WORK INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND
COASTAL COLLIER AREAS, AND CONVECTION IS SET TO BEGIN DEVELOPING.
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE TWO SEA BREEZES WILL MEET, AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
INCREASES, 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH (-8 TO -9C), AND
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY DOMINATED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
DYNAMICS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING UP AND RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ALOFT, THUS REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE IMPACTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS AND GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
INDEED POSSIBLE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) WILL ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR
DIURNAL PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUOUS WEAK
FLOW PATTERN AND THUS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEING CAUSED
EACH DAY BY THE SEA BREEZES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INLAND
AND INTERIOR AREAS FOR SEEING THE MOST AND STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AS FURTHER CONVECTION CAN FORM
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ALSO SOME CONVECTION CAN DRIFT TOWARDS
THE METRO AREAS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DEEPER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN STRENGTH. GIVEN
THAT THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL EXACTLY CHANGE THE
LOCAL WEATHER, BUT IT DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMIER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEA BREEZES STARTING TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS BOTH COASTS. ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WELL
INLAND OF SITES, BUT WE WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 90 79 89 / 20 50 20 40
WEST KENDALL 76 91 76 92 / 20 50 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 78 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 40
HOMESTEAD 78 90 78 90 / 30 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 79 88 / 20 50 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 80 94 / 20 50 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 20 50 20 50
BOCA RATON 78 90 78 90 / 30 50 20 50
NAPLES 74 90 75 91 / 30 60 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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