285
FXUS62 KMFL 251750
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TWO SEA
BREEZES CURRENTLY WORK INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND
COASTAL COLLIER AREAS, AND CONVECTION IS SET TO BEGIN DEVELOPING.
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE TWO SEA BREEZES WILL MEET, AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
INCREASES, 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH (-8 TO -9C), AND
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY DOMINATED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
DYNAMICS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING UP AND RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ALOFT, THUS REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE IMPACTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S. SHARP FLUCTUATIONS AND GRADIENTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
INDEED POSSIBLE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) WILL ACT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR
DIURNAL PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUOUS WEAK FLOW LEADING TO PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY BY THE SEA BREEZES. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INLAND AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BULK OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRETY
OF THE REGION DUE TO CONVECTION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN METRO CORRIDOR.
AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, DEEP LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS IT AMPLIFIES IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PATTERN DEVELOPMENT AND SPECIFICS. REGARDLESS OF MODEL, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS HINTING WE HAVE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN OUR FUTURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS. HEAT INDICES MAY BE PUSHING TEMPERATURES IN THE
102-107 ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST FL
INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEA BREEZES STARTING TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS BOTH COASTS. ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WELL
INLAND OF SITES, BUT WE WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 90 80 89 / 20 40 20 30
WEST KENDALL 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 78 92 / 20 40 20 40
HOMESTEAD 79 90 78 90 / 30 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 20 40 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 78 89 / 20 40 10 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 93 81 94 / 20 40 10 40
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 10 40
BOCA RATON 79 90 78 91 / 20 40 20 40
NAPLES 74 90 75 91 / 30 50 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV
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